Eastside Distilling Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EAST Stock  USD 0.76  0.08  9.52%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eastside Distilling on the next trading day is expected to be 0.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.74. Eastside Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to gain to 3.09 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 2.34 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 1.1 M in 2024, whereas Net Loss is likely to drop (4.3 M) in 2024.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Eastside Distilling's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2011-12-31
Previous Quarter
420 K
Current Value
310 K
Quarterly Volatility
1.8 M
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Eastside Distilling is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Eastside Distilling value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Eastside Distilling Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eastside Distilling on the next trading day is expected to be 0.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.74.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eastside Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eastside Distilling's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eastside Distilling Stock Forecast Pattern

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Eastside Distilling Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eastside Distilling's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eastside Distilling's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.31, respectively. We have considered Eastside Distilling's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.76
0.83
Expected Value
8.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eastside Distilling stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eastside Distilling stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.6223
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0286
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0485
SAESum of the absolute errors1.743
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Eastside Distilling. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Eastside Distilling. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Eastside Distilling

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eastside Distilling. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eastside Distilling's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.040.838.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.091.829.30
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
4.555.005.55
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Eastside Distilling

For every potential investor in Eastside, whether a beginner or expert, Eastside Distilling's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eastside Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eastside. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eastside Distilling's price trends.

Eastside Distilling Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eastside Distilling stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eastside Distilling could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eastside Distilling by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Eastside Distilling Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eastside Distilling's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eastside Distilling's current price.

Eastside Distilling Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eastside Distilling stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eastside Distilling shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eastside Distilling stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eastside Distilling entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Eastside Distilling Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eastside Distilling's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eastside Distilling's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eastside stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Eastside Stock Analysis

When running Eastside Distilling's price analysis, check to measure Eastside Distilling's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eastside Distilling is operating at the current time. Most of Eastside Distilling's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eastside Distilling's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eastside Distilling's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eastside Distilling to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.