Eagle Point Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ECCF Stock   24.87  0.04  0.16%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eagle Point Credit on the next trading day is expected to be 24.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.54. Eagle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Eagle Point's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
The Eagle Point's current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.15, while Inventory Turnover is projected to decrease to (0.04). . The current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to decrease to about 55.5 M.

Eagle Point Cash Forecast

Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Eagle Point's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
46.4 M
Current Value
33.5 M
Quarterly Volatility
17.3 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Eagle Point is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Eagle Point Credit value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Eagle Point Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eagle Point Credit on the next trading day is expected to be 24.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eagle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eagle Point's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eagle Point Stock Forecast Pattern

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Eagle Point Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eagle Point's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eagle Point's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.48 and 24.98, respectively. We have considered Eagle Point's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.87
24.73
Expected Value
24.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eagle Point stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eagle Point stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.1924
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0416
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0017
SAESum of the absolute errors2.5378
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Eagle Point Credit. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Eagle Point. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Eagle Point

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eagle Point Credit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eagle Point's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.5824.8325.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.5624.8125.06
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Eagle Point

For every potential investor in Eagle, whether a beginner or expert, Eagle Point's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eagle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eagle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eagle Point's price trends.

Eagle Point Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eagle Point stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eagle Point could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eagle Point by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Eagle Point Credit Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eagle Point's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eagle Point's current price.

Eagle Point Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eagle Point stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eagle Point shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eagle Point stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eagle Point Credit entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Eagle Point Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eagle Point's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eagle Point's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eagle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Eagle Point Credit offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Eagle Point's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Eagle Point Credit Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Eagle Point Credit Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eagle Point to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Asset Management space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Eagle Point. If investors know Eagle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Eagle Point listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Eagle Point Credit is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Eagle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Eagle Point's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Eagle Point's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Eagle Point's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Eagle Point's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Eagle Point's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Eagle Point is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eagle Point's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.