Ellsworth Convertible Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ECF Stock | USD 9.93 0.06 0.60% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ellsworth Convertible Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 10.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.55. Ellsworth Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ellsworth Convertible's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Ellsworth |
Ellsworth Convertible Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Ellsworth Convertible's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2006-09-30 | Previous Quarter 43.9 K | Current Value 16.4 K | Quarterly Volatility 2.3 M |
Ellsworth Convertible Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ellsworth Convertible Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 10.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ellsworth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ellsworth Convertible's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ellsworth Convertible Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ellsworth Convertible Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ellsworth Convertible's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ellsworth Convertible's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.27 and 10.88, respectively. We have considered Ellsworth Convertible's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ellsworth Convertible stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ellsworth Convertible stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2686 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0747 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0082 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.5549 |
Predictive Modules for Ellsworth Convertible
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ellsworth Convertible. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ellsworth Convertible's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Ellsworth Convertible
For every potential investor in Ellsworth, whether a beginner or expert, Ellsworth Convertible's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ellsworth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ellsworth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ellsworth Convertible's price trends.View Ellsworth Convertible Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ellsworth Convertible Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ellsworth Convertible's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ellsworth Convertible's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Ellsworth Convertible Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ellsworth Convertible stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ellsworth Convertible shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ellsworth Convertible stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ellsworth Convertible Growth entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ellsworth Convertible Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ellsworth Convertible's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ellsworth Convertible's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ellsworth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6602 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4013 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8203 | |||
| Variance | 0.6729 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5754 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.161 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Ellsworth Convertible is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ellsworth Convertible's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ellsworth Convertible's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Ellsworth Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellsworth Convertible to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ellsworth Convertible. If investors know Ellsworth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ellsworth Convertible listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.456 | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.46 | Revenue Per Share 0.432 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.184 |
The market value of Ellsworth Convertible is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ellsworth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ellsworth Convertible's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ellsworth Convertible's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ellsworth Convertible's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ellsworth Convertible's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ellsworth Convertible's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ellsworth Convertible is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ellsworth Convertible's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.