New Oriental Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

EDU Stock  USD 63.17  0.15  0.24%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Oriental Education on the next trading day is expected to be 63.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 103.92. New Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, New Oriental's Payables Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 248.70 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 20.00 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 167.6 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 163.6 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 New Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast New Oriental's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in New Oriental's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for New Oriental stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current New Oriental's open interest, investors have to compare it to New Oriental's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of New Oriental is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in New. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Triple exponential smoothing for New Oriental - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When New Oriental prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in New Oriental price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of New Oriental Education.

New Oriental Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Oriental Education on the next trading day is expected to be 63.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.76, mean absolute percentage error of 6.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 103.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Oriental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

New Oriental Stock Forecast Pattern

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New Oriental Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting New Oriental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Oriental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.03 and 67.31, respectively. We have considered New Oriental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
63.17
63.67
Expected Value
67.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Oriental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Oriental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.07
MADMean absolute deviation1.7613
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0269
SAESum of the absolute errors103.9177
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past New Oriental observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older New Oriental Education observations.

Predictive Modules for New Oriental

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Oriental Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Oriental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
58.8262.4666.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
57.0160.6564.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
59.4064.5869.76
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
61.1767.2274.61
Details

Other Forecasting Options for New Oriental

For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New Oriental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Oriental's price trends.

New Oriental Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Oriental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Oriental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Oriental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

New Oriental Education Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of New Oriental's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of New Oriental's current price.

New Oriental Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Oriental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Oriental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Oriental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Oriental Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

New Oriental Risk Indicators

The analysis of New Oriental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Oriental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for New Stock Analysis

When running New Oriental's price analysis, check to measure New Oriental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Oriental is operating at the current time. Most of New Oriental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Oriental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Oriental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Oriental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.