Vaalco Energy Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

EGY Stock  USD 4.96  0.02  0.40%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vaalco Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 4.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.33. Vaalco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Vaalco Energy's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to rise to 12.72 in 2024, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 5.93 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 111.9 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 49 M in 2024.
Triple exponential smoothing for Vaalco Energy - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Vaalco Energy prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Vaalco Energy price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Vaalco Energy.

Vaalco Energy Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vaalco Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 4.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vaalco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vaalco Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vaalco Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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Vaalco Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vaalco Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vaalco Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.75 and 7.16, respectively. We have considered Vaalco Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.96
4.96
Expected Value
7.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vaalco Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vaalco Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0143
MADMean absolute deviation0.1072
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0193
SAESum of the absolute errors6.3276
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Vaalco Energy observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Vaalco Energy observations.

Predictive Modules for Vaalco Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vaalco Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.734.947.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.685.898.10
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.628.379.29
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vaalco Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vaalco Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vaalco Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vaalco Energy.

Other Forecasting Options for Vaalco Energy

For every potential investor in Vaalco, whether a beginner or expert, Vaalco Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vaalco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vaalco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vaalco Energy's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vaalco Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vaalco Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vaalco Energy's current price.

Vaalco Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vaalco Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vaalco Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vaalco Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vaalco Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vaalco Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vaalco Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vaalco Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaalco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Vaalco Stock Analysis

When running Vaalco Energy's price analysis, check to measure Vaalco Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vaalco Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Vaalco Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vaalco Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vaalco Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vaalco Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.