Surya Esa Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

ESSA Stock  IDR 835.00  5.00  0.60%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Surya Esa Perkasa on the next trading day is expected to be 878.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 56.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,437. Surya Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Surya Esa price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Surya Esa Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Surya Esa Perkasa on the next trading day is expected to be 878.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 56.35, mean absolute percentage error of 3,637, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,437.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Surya Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Surya Esa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Surya Esa Stock Forecast Pattern

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Surya Esa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Surya Esa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Surya Esa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 876.29 and 881.60, respectively. We have considered Surya Esa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
835.00
876.29
Downside
878.94
Expected Value
881.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Surya Esa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Surya Esa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria126.3095
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation56.3463
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0637
SAESum of the absolute errors3437.1243
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Surya Esa Perkasa historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Surya Esa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Surya Esa Perkasa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
827.35830.00832.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
720.80723.45913.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
800.46859.50918.54
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Surya Esa

For every potential investor in Surya, whether a beginner or expert, Surya Esa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Surya Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Surya. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Surya Esa's price trends.

Surya Esa Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Surya Esa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Surya Esa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Surya Esa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Surya Esa Perkasa Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Surya Esa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Surya Esa's current price.

Surya Esa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Surya Esa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Surya Esa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Surya Esa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Surya Esa Perkasa entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Surya Esa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Surya Esa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Surya Esa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting surya stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Surya Stock

Surya Esa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Surya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Surya with respect to the benefits of owning Surya Esa security.