Eventide Gilead Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ETAGX Fund  USD 50.19  0.03  0.06%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eventide Gilead on the next trading day is expected to be 50.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.02. Eventide Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Eventide Gilead - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Eventide Gilead prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Eventide Gilead price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Eventide Gilead.

Eventide Gilead Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eventide Gilead on the next trading day is expected to be 50.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eventide Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eventide Gilead's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eventide Gilead Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Eventide Gilead Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eventide Gilead's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eventide Gilead's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.20 and 51.38, respectively. We have considered Eventide Gilead's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
50.19
50.29
Expected Value
51.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eventide Gilead mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eventide Gilead mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0959
MADMean absolute deviation0.441
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0087
SAESum of the absolute errors26.02
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Eventide Gilead observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Eventide Gilead observations.

Predictive Modules for Eventide Gilead

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eventide Gilead. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
49.1350.2251.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
49.3250.4151.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Eventide Gilead. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Eventide Gilead's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Eventide Gilead's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Eventide Gilead.

Other Forecasting Options for Eventide Gilead

For every potential investor in Eventide, whether a beginner or expert, Eventide Gilead's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eventide Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eventide. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eventide Gilead's price trends.

Eventide Gilead Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eventide Gilead mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eventide Gilead could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eventide Gilead by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Eventide Gilead Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eventide Gilead's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eventide Gilead's current price.

Eventide Gilead Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eventide Gilead mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eventide Gilead shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eventide Gilead mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Eventide Gilead entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Eventide Gilead Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eventide Gilead's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eventide Gilead's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eventide mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Eventide Mutual Fund

Eventide Gilead financial ratios help investors to determine whether Eventide Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Eventide with respect to the benefits of owning Eventide Gilead security.
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