Beta MWIG40TR Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ETFBM40TR | 94.78 0.07 0.07% |
Beta |
Beta MWIG40TR Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Beta mWIG40TR Portfelowy on the next trading day is expected to be 94.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Beta Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Beta MWIG40TR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Beta MWIG40TR Etf Forecast Pattern
Beta MWIG40TR Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Beta MWIG40TR's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Beta MWIG40TR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.60 and 95.22, respectively. We have considered Beta MWIG40TR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Beta MWIG40TR etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Beta MWIG40TR etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5417 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6715 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0071 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.6329 |
Predictive Modules for Beta MWIG40TR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Beta mWIG40TR Portfelowy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Beta MWIG40TR
For every potential investor in Beta, whether a beginner or expert, Beta MWIG40TR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Beta Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Beta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Beta MWIG40TR's price trends.Beta MWIG40TR Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Beta MWIG40TR etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Beta MWIG40TR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Beta MWIG40TR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Beta mWIG40TR Portfelowy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Beta MWIG40TR's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Beta MWIG40TR's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Beta MWIG40TR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Beta MWIG40TR etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Beta MWIG40TR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Beta MWIG40TR etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Beta mWIG40TR Portfelowy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Beta MWIG40TR Risk Indicators
The analysis of Beta MWIG40TR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Beta MWIG40TR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting beta etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6404 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7804 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8517 | |||
| Variance | 0.7253 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7249 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.609 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.69) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Beta MWIG40TR
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Beta MWIG40TR position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Beta MWIG40TR will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Beta MWIG40TR could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Beta MWIG40TR when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Beta MWIG40TR - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Beta mWIG40TR Portfelowy to buy it.
The correlation of Beta MWIG40TR is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Beta MWIG40TR moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Beta mWIG40TR Portfelowy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Beta MWIG40TR can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.