Evoke Pharma Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

EVOK Stock  USD 4.31  0.10  2.38%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evoke Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 4.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.20. Evoke Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Evoke Pharma's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Evoke Pharma's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Evoke Pharma fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Evoke Pharma's Payables Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is expected to rise to 8.08 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 0.40. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 264.7 K. The value of Net Loss is expected to slide to about (7.8 M).
Triple exponential smoothing for Evoke Pharma - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Evoke Pharma prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Evoke Pharma price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Evoke Pharma.

Evoke Pharma Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evoke Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 4.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.20.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evoke Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evoke Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Evoke Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern

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Evoke Pharma Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Evoke Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evoke Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 10.53, respectively. We have considered Evoke Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.31
4.26
Expected Value
10.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evoke Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evoke Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0375
MADMean absolute deviation0.2068
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0396
SAESum of the absolute errors12.2002
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Evoke Pharma observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Evoke Pharma observations.

Predictive Modules for Evoke Pharma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evoke Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.224.3310.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.285.5711.84
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.377.007.77
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Evoke Pharma

For every potential investor in Evoke, whether a beginner or expert, Evoke Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evoke Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evoke. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evoke Pharma's price trends.

Evoke Pharma Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evoke Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evoke Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evoke Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Evoke Pharma Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Evoke Pharma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Evoke Pharma's current price.

Evoke Pharma Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evoke Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evoke Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evoke Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evoke Pharma entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Evoke Pharma Risk Indicators

The analysis of Evoke Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evoke Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evoke stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Evoke Pharma is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Evoke Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Evoke Pharma Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Evoke Pharma Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evoke Pharma to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Evoke Stock please use our How to buy in Evoke Stock guide.
You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evoke Pharma. If investors know Evoke will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Evoke Pharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(10.13)
Revenue Per Share
7.792
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.698
Return On Assets
(0.34)
Return On Equity
(3.50)
The market value of Evoke Pharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Evoke that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Evoke Pharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Evoke Pharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Evoke Pharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Evoke Pharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Evoke Pharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Evoke Pharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Evoke Pharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.