Export Development Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

EXPA Stock   18.32  0.22  1.19%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Export Development Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 18.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.72. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Export Development's stock prices and determine the direction of Export Development Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Export Development's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Export Development works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Export Development Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Export Development Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 18.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Export Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Export Development's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Export Development Stock Forecast Pattern

Export Development Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Export Development's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Export Development's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.83 and 20.91, respectively. We have considered Export Development's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.32
18.37
Expected Value
20.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Export Development stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Export Development stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0035
MADMean absolute deviation0.2834
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0165
SAESum of the absolute errors16.7211
When Export Development Bank prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Export Development Bank trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Export Development observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Export Development

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Export Development Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Export Development

For every potential investor in Export, whether a beginner or expert, Export Development's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Export Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Export. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Export Development's price trends.

Export Development Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Export Development stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Export Development could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Export Development by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Export Development Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Export Development's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Export Development's current price.

Export Development Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Export Development stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Export Development shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Export Development stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Export Development Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Export Development Risk Indicators

The analysis of Export Development's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Export Development's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting export stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.