Fraser Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

FNEVY Stock  USD 4.26  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fraser and Neave on the next trading day is expected to be 4.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. Fraser Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Fraser is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fraser and Neave value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fraser Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fraser and Neave on the next trading day is expected to be 4.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fraser Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fraser's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fraser Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Fraser Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fraser's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fraser's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.26 and 4.26, respectively. We have considered Fraser's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.26
4.26
Expected Value
4.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fraser pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fraser pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria52.5657
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fraser and Neave. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fraser. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fraser

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fraser and Neave. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fraser's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.264.264.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.264.264.26
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Fraser

For every potential investor in Fraser, whether a beginner or expert, Fraser's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fraser Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fraser. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fraser's price trends.

Fraser Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fraser pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fraser could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fraser by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fraser and Neave Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fraser's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fraser's current price.

Fraser Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fraser pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fraser shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fraser pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Fraser and Neave entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Fraser Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Fraser's price analysis, check to measure Fraser's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fraser is operating at the current time. Most of Fraser's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fraser's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fraser's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fraser to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.