Five Star Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FSBC Stock | USD 32.71 0.40 1.21% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Five Star Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.82. Five Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Five Star stock prices and determine the direction of Five Star Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Five Star's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Five |
Five Star Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Five Star's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-06-30 | Previous Quarter 194.5 M | Current Value 255 M | Quarterly Volatility 194.6 M |
Five Star Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Five Star Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Five Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Five Star's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Five Star Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Five Star | Five Star Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Five Star Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Five Star's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Five Star's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.72 and 34.96, respectively. We have considered Five Star's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Five Star stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Five Star stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5085 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5872 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0193 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.8204 |
Predictive Modules for Five Star
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Five Star Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Five Star
For every potential investor in Five, whether a beginner or expert, Five Star's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Five Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Five. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Five Star's price trends.View Five Star Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Five Star Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Five Star's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Five Star's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Five Star Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Five Star stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Five Star shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Five Star stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Five Star Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Five Star Risk Indicators
The analysis of Five Star's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Five Star's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting five stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Variance | 4.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Five Star Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Five Star's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Five Star Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Five Star Bancorp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Star to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Star. If investors know Five will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Star listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Dividend Share 0.8 | Earnings Share 2.26 | Revenue Per Share 5.91 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.043 |
The market value of Five Star Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Star's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Star's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Star's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Star's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Star's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Five Star is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Star's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.