Fortuna Silver Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

FVI Stock  CAD 7.07  0.11  1.53%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fortuna Silver Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 7.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.52. Fortuna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Fortuna Silver's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fortuna Silver's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fortuna Silver fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Fortuna Silver's Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 11th of December 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.58, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 6.17. . As of the 11th of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 309.8 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (109.6 M).
A two period moving average forecast for Fortuna Silver is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Fortuna Silver Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fortuna Silver Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 7.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.52.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fortuna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fortuna Silver's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fortuna Silver Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Fortuna SilverFortuna Silver Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Fortuna Silver Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fortuna Silver's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fortuna Silver's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.63 and 10.51, respectively. We have considered Fortuna Silver's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.07
7.07
Expected Value
10.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fortuna Silver stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fortuna Silver stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.4191
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0074
MADMean absolute deviation0.1919
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0285
SAESum of the absolute errors11.515
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Fortuna Silver Mines price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Fortuna Silver. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Fortuna Silver

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fortuna Silver Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
3.597.0310.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.496.9310.37
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.130.140.15
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Fortuna Silver

For every potential investor in Fortuna, whether a beginner or expert, Fortuna Silver's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fortuna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fortuna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fortuna Silver's price trends.

Fortuna Silver Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fortuna Silver stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fortuna Silver could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fortuna Silver by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fortuna Silver Mines Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fortuna Silver's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fortuna Silver's current price.

Fortuna Silver Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fortuna Silver stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fortuna Silver shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fortuna Silver stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fortuna Silver Mines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fortuna Silver Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fortuna Silver's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fortuna Silver's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fortuna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
When determining whether Fortuna Silver Mines is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fortuna Silver's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fortuna Silver's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fortuna Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortuna Silver to cross-verify your projections.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Fortuna Silver's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fortuna Silver is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fortuna Silver's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.