Frontier Communications Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

FYBR Stock  USD 34.49  0.02  0.06%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Frontier Communications Parent on the next trading day is expected to be 34.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.93. Frontier Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Frontier Communications' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Frontier Communications' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Frontier Communications fundamentals over time.
  
As of 12/05/2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.67, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop (30.03). . As of 12/05/2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 532.5 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 139.4 M.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Frontier Communications works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Frontier Communications Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Frontier Communications Parent on the next trading day is expected to be 34.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.93.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Frontier Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Frontier Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Frontier Communications Stock Forecast Pattern

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Frontier Communications Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Frontier Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Frontier Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.73 and 35.16, respectively. We have considered Frontier Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
34.49
34.45
Expected Value
35.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Frontier Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Frontier Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0403
MADMean absolute deviation0.1853
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0052
SAESum of the absolute errors10.9312
When Frontier Communications Parent prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Frontier Communications Parent trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Frontier Communications observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Frontier Communications

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Frontier Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
33.7734.4935.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.8833.6037.94
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
29.3932.3035.85
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.27-0.24-0.17
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Frontier Communications. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Frontier Communications' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Frontier Communications' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Frontier Communications.

Other Forecasting Options for Frontier Communications

For every potential investor in Frontier, whether a beginner or expert, Frontier Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Frontier Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Frontier. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Frontier Communications' price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Frontier Communications Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Frontier Communications' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Frontier Communications' current price.

Frontier Communications Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Frontier Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Frontier Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Frontier Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Frontier Communications Parent entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Frontier Communications Risk Indicators

The analysis of Frontier Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Frontier Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting frontier stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Frontier Communications

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Frontier Communications position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Frontier Communications will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Frontier Stock

  0.33OB OutbrainPairCorr
  0.32EA Electronic Arts Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Frontier Communications could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Frontier Communications when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Frontier Communications - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Frontier Communications Parent to buy it.
The correlation of Frontier Communications is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Frontier Communications moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Frontier Communications moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Frontier Communications can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Frontier Stock Analysis

When running Frontier Communications' price analysis, check to measure Frontier Communications' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Frontier Communications is operating at the current time. Most of Frontier Communications' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Frontier Communications' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Frontier Communications' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Frontier Communications to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.