GrafTech International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

G6G Stock  EUR 1.55  0.10  6.06%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GrafTech International on the next trading day is expected to be 1.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.82. GrafTech Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of GrafTech International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for GrafTech International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of GrafTech International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

GrafTech International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GrafTech International on the next trading day is expected to be 1.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GrafTech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GrafTech International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GrafTech International Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest GrafTech InternationalGrafTech International Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

GrafTech International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GrafTech International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GrafTech International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.33, respectively. We have considered GrafTech International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.55
1.55
Expected Value
8.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GrafTech International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GrafTech International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.6396
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.079
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0473
SAESum of the absolute errors4.8178
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of GrafTech International. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GrafTech International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for GrafTech International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GrafTech International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.081.558.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.598.37
Details

Other Forecasting Options for GrafTech International

For every potential investor in GrafTech, whether a beginner or expert, GrafTech International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GrafTech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GrafTech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GrafTech International's price trends.

GrafTech International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GrafTech International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GrafTech International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GrafTech International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GrafTech International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GrafTech International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GrafTech International's current price.

GrafTech International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GrafTech International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GrafTech International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GrafTech International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GrafTech International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GrafTech International Risk Indicators

The analysis of GrafTech International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GrafTech International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graftech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in GrafTech Stock

When determining whether GrafTech International is a strong investment it is important to analyze GrafTech International's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact GrafTech International's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding GrafTech Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GrafTech International to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in GrafTech Stock please use our How to Invest in GrafTech International guide.
You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GrafTech International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GrafTech International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GrafTech International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.