New Concept Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GBR Stock | USD 1.19 0.03 2.46% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Concept Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 1.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.33. New Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although New Concept's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of New Concept's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of New Concept fundamentals over time.
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New Concept Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Concept Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 1.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Concept's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
New Concept Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest New Concept | New Concept Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
New Concept Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting New Concept's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Concept's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.14, respectively. We have considered New Concept's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Concept stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Concept stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0016 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0225 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0186 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.3272 |
Predictive Modules for New Concept
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Concept Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for New Concept
For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New Concept's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Concept's price trends.New Concept Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Concept stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Concept could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Concept by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
New Concept Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of New Concept's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of New Concept's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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New Concept Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Concept stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Concept shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Concept stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Concept Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
New Concept Risk Indicators
The analysis of New Concept's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Concept's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Variance | 8.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with New Concept
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if New Concept position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in New Concept will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against New Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to New Concept could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace New Concept when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back New Concept - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling New Concept Energy to buy it.
The correlation of New Concept is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as New Concept moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if New Concept Energy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for New Concept can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for New Stock Analysis
When running New Concept's price analysis, check to measure New Concept's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Concept is operating at the current time. Most of New Concept's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Concept's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Concept's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Concept to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.