Gold Fields Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

GFI Stock  ARS 15,725  375.00  2.44%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Gold Fields Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 15,032 with a mean absolute deviation of 721.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44,705. Gold Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Gold Fields stock prices and determine the direction of Gold Fields Ltd's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Gold Fields' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Gold Fields polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Gold Fields Ltd as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Gold Fields Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Gold Fields Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 15,032 with a mean absolute deviation of 721.05, mean absolute percentage error of 922,464, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44,705.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gold Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gold Fields' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gold Fields Stock Forecast Pattern

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Gold Fields Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gold Fields' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gold Fields' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15,029 and 15,035, respectively. We have considered Gold Fields' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15,725
15,029
Downside
15,032
Expected Value
15,035
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gold Fields stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gold Fields stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria133.6832
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation721.0546
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.039
SAESum of the absolute errors44705.3853
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Gold Fields historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Gold Fields

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gold Fields. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15,72215,72515,728
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14,45014,45317,298
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14,82715,88016,933
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Gold Fields

For every potential investor in Gold, whether a beginner or expert, Gold Fields' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gold Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gold. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gold Fields' price trends.

Gold Fields Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gold Fields stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gold Fields could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gold Fields by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gold Fields Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gold Fields' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gold Fields' current price.

Gold Fields Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gold Fields stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gold Fields shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gold Fields stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gold Fields Ltd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gold Fields Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gold Fields' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gold Fields' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gold stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Gold Stock

When determining whether Gold Fields offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Gold Fields' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Gold Fields Ltd Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Gold Fields Ltd Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gold Fields to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gold Fields' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gold Fields is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gold Fields' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.