Feeder Cattle Commodity Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

GFUSX Commodity   256.95  2.35  0.91%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Feeder Cattle Futures on the next trading day is expected to be 256.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.59. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Feeder Cattle's commodity prices and determine the direction of Feeder Cattle Futures's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
Feeder Cattle simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Feeder Cattle Futures are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Feeder Cattle Futures prices get older.

Feeder Cattle Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Feeder Cattle Futures on the next trading day is expected to be 256.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 2.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Feeder Commodity prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Feeder Cattle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Feeder Cattle Commodity Forecast Pattern

Feeder Cattle Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Feeder Cattle's Commodity value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Feeder Cattle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 256.32 and 257.58, respectively. We have considered Feeder Cattle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
256.95
256.32
Downside
256.95
Expected Value
257.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Feeder Cattle commodity data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Feeder Cattle commodity, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.118
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.3078
MADMean absolute deviation1.1765
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0047
SAESum of the absolute errors70.59
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Feeder Cattle Futures forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Feeder Cattle observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Feeder Cattle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Feeder Cattle Futures. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Feeder Cattle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Other Forecasting Options for Feeder Cattle

For every potential investor in Feeder, whether a beginner or expert, Feeder Cattle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Feeder Commodity price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Feeder. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Feeder Cattle's price trends.

Feeder Cattle Related Commodities

One prevalent trading approach among algorithmic traders in the commodities sector involves employing market-neutral strategies, wherein each trade is designed to hedge away specific risks. Given that this approach necessitates two distinct transactions, if one position underperforms unexpectedly, the other can potentially offset some of the losses. This method can be applied to commodities such as Feeder Cattle, pairing it with other commodities or financial instruments to create a balanced, market-neutral setup.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Feeder Cattle Futures Technical and Predictive Analytics

The commodity market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Feeder Cattle's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Feeder Cattle's current price.

Feeder Cattle Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Feeder Cattle commodity reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Feeder Cattle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Feeder Cattle commodity market strength indicators, traders can identify Feeder Cattle Futures entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Feeder Cattle Risk Indicators

The analysis of Feeder Cattle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Feeder Cattle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting feeder commodity prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.