Grupo Financiero Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GGAL Stock  ARS 6,760  150.00  2.27%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Grupo Financiero Galicia on the next trading day is expected to be 6,774 with a mean absolute deviation of 88.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,417. Grupo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Grupo Financiero stock prices and determine the direction of Grupo Financiero Galicia's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Grupo Financiero's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Grupo Financiero is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Grupo Financiero Galicia value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Grupo Financiero Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Grupo Financiero Galicia on the next trading day is expected to be 6,774 with a mean absolute deviation of 88.80, mean absolute percentage error of 12,615, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,417.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupo Financiero's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Grupo Financiero Stock Forecast Pattern

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Grupo Financiero Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Grupo Financiero's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grupo Financiero's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6,772 and 6,776, respectively. We have considered Grupo Financiero's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6,760
6,774
Expected Value
6,776
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupo Financiero stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupo Financiero stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.5532
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation88.7968
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0147
SAESum of the absolute errors5416.6038
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Grupo Financiero Galicia. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Grupo Financiero. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Grupo Financiero

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Financiero Galicia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6,7586,7606,762
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6,0847,5147,516
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
6,0176,3476,677
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Grupo Financiero

For every potential investor in Grupo, whether a beginner or expert, Grupo Financiero's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grupo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grupo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grupo Financiero's price trends.

Grupo Financiero Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grupo Financiero stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grupo Financiero could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grupo Financiero by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Grupo Financiero Galicia Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Grupo Financiero's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Grupo Financiero's current price.

Grupo Financiero Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grupo Financiero stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grupo Financiero shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grupo Financiero stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grupo Financiero Galicia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Grupo Financiero Risk Indicators

The analysis of Grupo Financiero's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grupo Financiero's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grupo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Grupo Stock

When determining whether Grupo Financiero Galicia is a strong investment it is important to analyze Grupo Financiero's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Grupo Financiero's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Grupo Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupo Financiero to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grupo Financiero's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grupo Financiero is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grupo Financiero's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.