Genmab AS Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GMAB Stock  USD 21.65  0.05  0.23%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Genmab AS on the next trading day is expected to be 22.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.36. Genmab Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Genmab AS stock prices and determine the direction of Genmab AS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Genmab AS's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Genmab AS's Payables Turnover is projected to drop slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 4.36, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 2.15. . The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 6.7 B, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 62.6 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 Genmab Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Genmab AS's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Genmab AS's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Genmab AS stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Genmab AS's open interest, investors have to compare it to Genmab AS's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Genmab AS is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Genmab. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Genmab AS Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Genmab AS's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2009-12-31
Previous Quarter
4.3 B
Current Value
6.3 B
Quarterly Volatility
4.5 B
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Genmab AS is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Genmab AS value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Genmab AS Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Genmab AS on the next trading day is expected to be 22.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genmab Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genmab AS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Genmab AS Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Genmab ASGenmab AS Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Genmab AS Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Genmab AS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genmab AS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.24 and 24.31, respectively. We have considered Genmab AS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.65
22.77
Expected Value
24.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genmab AS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genmab AS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4646
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3502
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors21.3647
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Genmab AS. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Genmab AS. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Genmab AS

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genmab AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.2621.7923.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.5327.7629.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
20.9321.4221.91
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.7544.7849.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Genmab AS. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Genmab AS's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Genmab AS's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Genmab AS.

Other Forecasting Options for Genmab AS

For every potential investor in Genmab, whether a beginner or expert, Genmab AS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genmab Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genmab. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genmab AS's price trends.

Genmab AS Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Genmab AS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Genmab AS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Genmab AS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Genmab AS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Genmab AS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Genmab AS's current price.

Genmab AS Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genmab AS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genmab AS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genmab AS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Genmab AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Genmab AS Risk Indicators

The analysis of Genmab AS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genmab AS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting genmab stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Genmab AS offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Genmab AS's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Genmab As Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Genmab As Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genmab AS to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Genmab Stock refer to our How to Trade Genmab Stock guide.
You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genmab AS. If investors know Genmab will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genmab AS listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
Earnings Share
1.02
Revenue Per Share
30.6997
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.176
Return On Assets
0.1095
The market value of Genmab AS is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genmab that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genmab AS's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genmab AS's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genmab AS's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genmab AS's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genmab AS's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Genmab AS is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genmab AS's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.