HUTCHMED DRC Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| HCM Stock | USD 18.43 1.05 6.04% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HUTCHMED DRC on the next trading day is expected to be 18.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.81. HUTCHMED Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although HUTCHMED DRC's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of HUTCHMED DRC's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of HUTCHMED DRC fundamentals over time.
HUTCHMED |
HUTCHMED DRC Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HUTCHMED DRC on the next trading day is expected to be 18.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HUTCHMED Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HUTCHMED DRC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HUTCHMED DRC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HUTCHMED DRC | HUTCHMED DRC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
HUTCHMED DRC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HUTCHMED DRC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HUTCHMED DRC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.33 and 21.79, respectively. We have considered HUTCHMED DRC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HUTCHMED DRC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HUTCHMED DRC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0481 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4883 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0263 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.8101 |
Predictive Modules for HUTCHMED DRC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HUTCHMED DRC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HUTCHMED DRC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for HUTCHMED DRC
For every potential investor in HUTCHMED, whether a beginner or expert, HUTCHMED DRC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HUTCHMED Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HUTCHMED. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HUTCHMED DRC's price trends.HUTCHMED DRC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HUTCHMED DRC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HUTCHMED DRC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HUTCHMED DRC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HUTCHMED DRC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of HUTCHMED DRC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of HUTCHMED DRC's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HUTCHMED DRC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HUTCHMED DRC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HUTCHMED DRC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HUTCHMED DRC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HUTCHMED DRC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
HUTCHMED DRC Risk Indicators
The analysis of HUTCHMED DRC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HUTCHMED DRC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hutchmed stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.18 | |||
| Variance | 10.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HUTCHMED DRC to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in HUTCHMED Stock, please use our How to Invest in HUTCHMED DRC guide.You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HUTCHMED DRC. If investors know HUTCHMED will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HUTCHMED DRC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | Earnings Share (0.25) | Revenue Per Share 3.575 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.43) | Return On Assets (0.06) |
The market value of HUTCHMED DRC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HUTCHMED that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HUTCHMED DRC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HUTCHMED DRC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HUTCHMED DRC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HUTCHMED DRC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HUTCHMED DRC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HUTCHMED DRC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HUTCHMED DRC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.