Cshg Jhsf Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

HGPO11 Fund   120.50  2.05  1.67%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cshg Jhsf Prime on the next trading day is expected to be 180.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 21.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,305. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Cshg Jhsf's fund prices and determine the direction of Cshg Jhsf Prime's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A naive forecasting model for Cshg Jhsf is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Cshg Jhsf Prime value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Cshg Jhsf Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cshg Jhsf Prime on the next trading day is expected to be 180.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 21.39, mean absolute percentage error of 942.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,305.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cshg Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cshg Jhsf's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cshg Jhsf Fund Forecast Pattern

Cshg Jhsf Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cshg Jhsf's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cshg Jhsf's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 172.40 and 187.93, respectively. We have considered Cshg Jhsf's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
120.50
172.40
Downside
180.17
Expected Value
187.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cshg Jhsf fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cshg Jhsf fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.9587
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation21.389
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1247
SAESum of the absolute errors1304.7261
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Cshg Jhsf Prime. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Cshg Jhsf. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Cshg Jhsf

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cshg Jhsf Prime. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Cshg Jhsf

For every potential investor in Cshg, whether a beginner or expert, Cshg Jhsf's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cshg Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cshg. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cshg Jhsf's price trends.

Cshg Jhsf Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cshg Jhsf fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cshg Jhsf could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cshg Jhsf by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cshg Jhsf Prime Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cshg Jhsf's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cshg Jhsf's current price.

Cshg Jhsf Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cshg Jhsf fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cshg Jhsf shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cshg Jhsf fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Cshg Jhsf Prime entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cshg Jhsf Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cshg Jhsf's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cshg Jhsf's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cshg fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
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