Miller/howard High Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Miller/howard High is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Millerhoward High Income value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Miller/howard High Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Millerhoward High Income on the next trading day is expected to be 12.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.58.

Miller/howard High Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Miller/howard High

Miller/howard High Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Miller/howard High fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Miller/howard High fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Millerhoward High Income. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Miller/howard High. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Miller/howard High

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Millerhoward High Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 11.94 12.56 13.18 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 10.91 11.53 13.82 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 12.36 12.49 12.61 Details

View Miller/howard High Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Miller/howard High Market Strength Events

Miller/howard High Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Consideration for investing in Miller/howard Fund