Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

HLAGF Stock  USD 166.78  8.57  5.42%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hapag Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft on the next trading day is expected to be 167.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 408.83. Hapag-Lloyd Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hapag Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hapag Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft on the next trading day is expected to be 167.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.70, mean absolute percentage error of 61.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 408.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hapag-Lloyd Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 163.41 and 170.89, respectively. We have considered Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
166.78
163.41
Downside
167.15
Expected Value
170.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.225
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.7021
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0407
SAESum of the absolute errors408.8253
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hapag Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
163.04166.78170.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
136.66140.40183.46
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha.

Other Forecasting Options for Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha

For every potential investor in Hapag-Lloyd, whether a beginner or expert, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hapag-Lloyd Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hapag-Lloyd. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's price trends.

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's current price.

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Hapag Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hapag-lloyd pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Hapag-Lloyd Pink Sheet

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hapag-Lloyd Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hapag-Lloyd with respect to the benefits of owning Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha security.