Herbalife Nutrition Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HLF Stock | USD 7.77 0.27 3.36% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Herbalife Nutrition on the next trading day is expected to be 7.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.30. Herbalife Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Herbalife Nutrition's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Herbalife |
Herbalife Nutrition Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Herbalife Nutrition's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2000-12-31 | Previous Quarter 384.4 M | Current Value 402.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 16.9 T |
Herbalife Nutrition Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Herbalife Nutrition on the next trading day is expected to be 7.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Herbalife Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Herbalife Nutrition's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Herbalife Nutrition Stock Forecast Pattern
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Herbalife Nutrition Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Herbalife Nutrition's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Herbalife Nutrition's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.86 and 10.82, respectively. We have considered Herbalife Nutrition's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Herbalife Nutrition stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Herbalife Nutrition stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.694 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2344 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0311 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.2976 |
Predictive Modules for Herbalife Nutrition
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Herbalife Nutrition. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Herbalife Nutrition
For every potential investor in Herbalife, whether a beginner or expert, Herbalife Nutrition's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Herbalife Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Herbalife. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Herbalife Nutrition's price trends.Herbalife Nutrition Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Herbalife Nutrition stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Herbalife Nutrition could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Herbalife Nutrition by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Herbalife Nutrition Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Herbalife Nutrition's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Herbalife Nutrition's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Herbalife Nutrition Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Herbalife Nutrition stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Herbalife Nutrition shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Herbalife Nutrition stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Herbalife Nutrition entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Herbalife Nutrition Risk Indicators
The analysis of Herbalife Nutrition's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Herbalife Nutrition's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting herbalife stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.46 | |||
| Variance | 11.98 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Herbalife Nutrition is a strong investment it is important to analyze Herbalife Nutrition's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Herbalife Nutrition's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Herbalife Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Herbalife Nutrition to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Herbalife Stock please use our How to Invest in Herbalife Nutrition guide.You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is Personal Care Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Herbalife Nutrition. If investors know Herbalife will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Herbalife Nutrition listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.07 | Earnings Share 0.85 | Revenue Per Share 49.945 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets 0.0988 |
The market value of Herbalife Nutrition is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Herbalife that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Herbalife Nutrition's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Herbalife Nutrition's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Herbalife Nutrition's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Herbalife Nutrition's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Herbalife Nutrition's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Herbalife Nutrition is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Herbalife Nutrition's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.