Harum Energy Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

HRUM Stock  IDR 1,140  10.00  0.87%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Harum Energy Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,064 with a mean absolute deviation of 34.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,118. Harum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Harum Energy price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Harum Energy Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Harum Energy Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,064 with a mean absolute deviation of 34.16, mean absolute percentage error of 1,700, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,118.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Harum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Harum Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Harum Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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Harum Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Harum Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Harum Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,062 and 1,066, respectively. We have considered Harum Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,140
1,064
Expected Value
1,066
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Harum Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Harum Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.3868
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation34.1621
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0274
SAESum of the absolute errors2118.0487
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Harum Energy Tbk historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Harum Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harum Energy Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,1381,1401,142
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,0041,0061,254
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,0711,1171,162
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Harum Energy

For every potential investor in Harum, whether a beginner or expert, Harum Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Harum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Harum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Harum Energy's price trends.

Harum Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Harum Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Harum Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harum Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Harum Energy Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Harum Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Harum Energy's current price.

Harum Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Harum Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Harum Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Harum Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Harum Energy Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Harum Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Harum Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harum Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting harum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Harum Stock

Harum Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Harum Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Harum with respect to the benefits of owning Harum Energy security.