Jeffs Brands Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

JFBR Stock  USD 2.98  0.28  8.59%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jeffs Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 2.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.79. Jeffs Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Jeffs Brands simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Jeffs Brands are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Jeffs Brands prices get older.

Jeffs Brands Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jeffs Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 2.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jeffs Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jeffs Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jeffs Brands Stock Forecast Pattern

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Jeffs Brands Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jeffs Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jeffs Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 126.28, respectively. We have considered Jeffs Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.98
2.98
Expected Value
126.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jeffs Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jeffs Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3391
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0458
MADMean absolute deviation0.0965
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0884
SAESum of the absolute errors5.79
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Jeffs Brands forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Jeffs Brands observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Jeffs Brands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jeffs Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.122.33251.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.091.74250.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
-0.542.004.54
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jeffs Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jeffs Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jeffs Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Jeffs Brands.

Other Forecasting Options for Jeffs Brands

For every potential investor in Jeffs, whether a beginner or expert, Jeffs Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jeffs Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jeffs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jeffs Brands' price trends.

Jeffs Brands Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jeffs Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jeffs Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jeffs Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jeffs Brands Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jeffs Brands' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jeffs Brands' current price.

Jeffs Brands Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jeffs Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jeffs Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jeffs Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jeffs Brands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jeffs Brands Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jeffs Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jeffs Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jeffs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Jeffs Brands

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Jeffs Brands position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Jeffs Brands will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Jeffs Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Jeffs Brands could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Jeffs Brands when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Jeffs Brands - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Jeffs Brands to buy it.
The correlation of Jeffs Brands is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Jeffs Brands moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Jeffs Brands moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Jeffs Brands can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Jeffs Stock Analysis

When running Jeffs Brands' price analysis, check to measure Jeffs Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jeffs Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Jeffs Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jeffs Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jeffs Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jeffs Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.