Johnson Municipal Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

JMUNX Fund  USD 16.63  0.01  0.06%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Johnson Municipal Income on the next trading day is expected to be 16.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.48. Johnson Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Johnson Municipal price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Johnson Municipal Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Johnson Municipal Income on the next trading day is expected to be 16.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Johnson Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Johnson Municipal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Johnson Municipal Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Johnson MunicipalJohnson Municipal Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Johnson Municipal Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Johnson Municipal's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Johnson Municipal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.18 and 16.66, respectively. We have considered Johnson Municipal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.63
16.42
Expected Value
16.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Johnson Municipal mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Johnson Municipal mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.4547
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0734
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0045
SAESum of the absolute errors4.4799
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Johnson Municipal Income historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Johnson Municipal

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Johnson Municipal Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.3916.6316.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.9216.1618.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.4416.5216.60
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Johnson Municipal

For every potential investor in Johnson, whether a beginner or expert, Johnson Municipal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Johnson Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Johnson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Johnson Municipal's price trends.

Johnson Municipal Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Johnson Municipal mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Johnson Municipal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Johnson Municipal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Johnson Municipal Income Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Johnson Municipal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Johnson Municipal's current price.

Johnson Municipal Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Johnson Municipal mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Johnson Municipal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Johnson Municipal mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Johnson Municipal Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Johnson Municipal Risk Indicators

The analysis of Johnson Municipal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Johnson Municipal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting johnson mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Johnson Mutual Fund

Johnson Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Johnson Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Johnson with respect to the benefits of owning Johnson Municipal security.
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