Kensington Active Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

KADAX Fund  USD 10.17  0.06  0.59%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Kensington Active Advantage on the next trading day is expected to be 10.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.67. Kensington Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Kensington Active Advantage is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Kensington Active 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Kensington Active Advantage on the next trading day is expected to be 10.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kensington Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kensington Active's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kensington Active Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Kensington ActiveKensington Active Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Kensington Active Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kensington Active's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kensington Active's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.72 and 10.57, respectively. We have considered Kensington Active's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.17
10.14
Expected Value
10.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kensington Active mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kensington Active mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria105.3023
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0084
MADMean absolute deviation0.0469
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0046
SAESum of the absolute errors2.6725
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Kensington Active. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Kensington Active Advantage and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Kensington Active

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kensington Active. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.7510.1710.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.7410.1610.58
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kensington Active. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kensington Active's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kensington Active's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kensington Active.

Other Forecasting Options for Kensington Active

For every potential investor in Kensington, whether a beginner or expert, Kensington Active's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kensington Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kensington. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kensington Active's price trends.

Kensington Active Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kensington Active mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kensington Active could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kensington Active by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kensington Active Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kensington Active's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kensington Active's current price.

Kensington Active Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kensington Active mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kensington Active shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kensington Active mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Kensington Active Advantage entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kensington Active Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kensington Active's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kensington Active's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kensington mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Kensington Mutual Fund

Kensington Active financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kensington Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kensington with respect to the benefits of owning Kensington Active security.
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