LCI Industries Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LCII Stock | USD 117.68 0.91 0.77% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of LCI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 113.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.83. LCI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of LCI Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
LCI |
Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 LCI Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast LCI Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in LCI Industries' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for LCI Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current LCI Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to LCI Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of LCI Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in LCI. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
LCI Industries Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the LCI Industries' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-06-30 | Previous Quarter 130.4 M | Current Value 161.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 28.7 M |
LCI Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of LCI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 113.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98, mean absolute percentage error of 6.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LCI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LCI Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LCI Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LCI Industries | LCI Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
LCI Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LCI Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LCI Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 111.60 and 115.71, respectively. We have considered LCI Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LCI Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LCI Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.948 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9809 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 120.8349 |
Predictive Modules for LCI Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LCI Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for LCI Industries
For every potential investor in LCI, whether a beginner or expert, LCI Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LCI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LCI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LCI Industries' price trends.LCI Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LCI Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LCI Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LCI Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LCI Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of LCI Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of LCI Industries' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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LCI Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LCI Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LCI Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LCI Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LCI Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6760.84 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.31) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 119.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 118.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.90) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.91) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 59.7 |
LCI Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of LCI Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LCI Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lci stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.58) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether LCI Industries offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of LCI Industries' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Lci Industries Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Lci Industries Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LCI Industries to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in LCI Stock please use our How to Invest in LCI Industries guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LCI Industries. If investors know LCI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LCI Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.363 | Dividend Share 4.2 | Earnings Share 5.13 | Revenue Per Share 148.575 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of LCI Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LCI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LCI Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LCI Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LCI Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LCI Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LCI Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if LCI Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LCI Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.