Lightwave Logic Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LWLG Stock | USD 2.67 0.12 4.30% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lightwave Logic on the next trading day is expected to be 2.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.17. Lightwave Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lightwave Logic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Lightwave |
Lightwave Logic Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lightwave Logic on the next trading day is expected to be 2.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lightwave Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lightwave Logic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lightwave Logic Stock Forecast Pattern
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Lightwave Logic Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lightwave Logic's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lightwave Logic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.23, respectively. We have considered Lightwave Logic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lightwave Logic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lightwave Logic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.049 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1385 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0445 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.17 |
Predictive Modules for Lightwave Logic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lightwave Logic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Lightwave Logic
For every potential investor in Lightwave, whether a beginner or expert, Lightwave Logic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lightwave Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lightwave. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lightwave Logic's price trends.Lightwave Logic Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lightwave Logic stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lightwave Logic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lightwave Logic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lightwave Logic Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lightwave Logic's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lightwave Logic's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Lightwave Logic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lightwave Logic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lightwave Logic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lightwave Logic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lightwave Logic entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lightwave Logic Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lightwave Logic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lightwave Logic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lightwave stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.98 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.52 | |||
| Variance | 30.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 33.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 31.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Lightwave Logic is a strong investment it is important to analyze Lightwave Logic's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Lightwave Logic's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Lightwave Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lightwave Logic to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Lightwave Stock please use our How to Invest in Lightwave Logic guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Specialty Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lightwave Logic. If investors know Lightwave will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lightwave Logic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.18) | Revenue Per Share 0.001 | Return On Assets (0.37) | Return On Equity (0.64) |
The market value of Lightwave Logic is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lightwave that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lightwave Logic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lightwave Logic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lightwave Logic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lightwave Logic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lightwave Logic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lightwave Logic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lightwave Logic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.