Moderna Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

M1RN34 Stock  BRL 12.05  0.04  0.33%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Moderna on the next trading day is expected to be 12.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.59. Moderna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Moderna stock prices and determine the direction of Moderna's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Moderna's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Moderna is based on an artificially constructed time series of Moderna daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Moderna 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Moderna on the next trading day is expected to be 12.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.80, mean absolute percentage error of 1.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moderna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moderna's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Moderna Stock Forecast Pattern

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Moderna Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Moderna's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moderna's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.85 and 15.99, respectively. We have considered Moderna's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.05
12.42
Expected Value
15.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moderna stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moderna stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria103.4303
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4022
MADMean absolute deviation0.8035
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0609
SAESum of the absolute errors42.5875
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Moderna 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Moderna

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moderna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.4812.0515.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.6511.2214.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moderna. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moderna's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moderna's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Moderna.

Other Forecasting Options for Moderna

For every potential investor in Moderna, whether a beginner or expert, Moderna's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moderna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moderna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moderna's price trends.

Moderna Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moderna stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moderna could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moderna by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Moderna Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Moderna's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Moderna's current price.

Moderna Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moderna stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moderna shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moderna stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moderna entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Moderna Risk Indicators

The analysis of Moderna's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moderna's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moderna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Moderna Stock

When determining whether Moderna offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Moderna's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Moderna Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Moderna Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moderna to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Moderna Stock refer to our How to Trade Moderna Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moderna's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Moderna is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moderna's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.