Investment Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MCO Stock   10,400  100.00  0.97%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Investment And Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 10,397 with a mean absolute deviation of 378.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22,713. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Investment's stock prices and determine the direction of Investment And Construction's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Investment's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
Investment simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Investment And Construction are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Investment And Const prices get older.

Investment Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Investment And Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 10,397 with a mean absolute deviation of 378.56, mean absolute percentage error of 263,213, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22,713.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Investment Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Investment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Investment Stock Forecast Pattern

Investment Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Investment's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Investment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10,393 and 10,402, respectively. We have considered Investment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10,400
10,393
Downside
10,397
Expected Value
10,402
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Investment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Investment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria128.7533
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 95.3916
MADMean absolute deviation378.5557
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0325
SAESum of the absolute errors22713.345
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Investment And Construction forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Investment observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Investment

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Investment And Const. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Investment

For every potential investor in Investment, whether a beginner or expert, Investment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Investment Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Investment. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Investment's price trends.

Investment Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Investment stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Investment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Investment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Investment And Const Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Investment's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Investment's current price.

Investment Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Investment stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Investment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Investment stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Investment And Construction entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Investment Risk Indicators

The analysis of Investment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Investment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting investment stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Investment

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Investment position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Investment will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Investment Stock

  0.61ICT Telecoms Informatics JSCPairCorr
  0.57ELC Elcom Technology ComPairCorr
  0.55BCF Bich Chi FoodPairCorr
  0.39FPT FPT CorpPairCorr
  0.37SMA Saigon Machinery SparePairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Investment could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Investment when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Investment - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Investment And Construction to buy it.
The correlation of Investment is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Investment moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Investment And Const moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Investment can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching