Montrose Environmental Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MEG Stock  USD 18.28  0.42  2.25%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Montrose Environmental Grp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.69. Montrose Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Montrose Environmental's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At this time, Montrose Environmental's Receivables Turnover is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. The Montrose Environmental's current Fixed Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 9.08, while Asset Turnover is projected to decrease to 0.76. . The current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to decrease to about 28.8 M. The current Net Loss is estimated to decrease to about (45.6 M).

Montrose Environmental Cash Forecast

Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Montrose Environmental's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2000-12-31
Previous Quarter
16.9 M
Current Value
13 M
Quarterly Volatility
57.7 M
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Montrose Environmental is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Montrose Environmental Grp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Montrose Environmental Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Montrose Environmental Grp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34, mean absolute percentage error of 2.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Montrose Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Montrose Environmental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Montrose Environmental Stock Forecast Pattern

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Montrose Environmental Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Montrose Environmental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Montrose Environmental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.17 and 29.05, respectively. We have considered Montrose Environmental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.28
24.11
Expected Value
29.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Montrose Environmental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Montrose Environmental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.0789
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3392
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0599
SAESum of the absolute errors81.6934
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Montrose Environmental Grp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Montrose Environmental. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Montrose Environmental

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Montrose Environmental. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Montrose Environmental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.7216.6621.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.4524.9629.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.3219.1620.01
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
42.0946.2551.34
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Montrose Environmental

For every potential investor in Montrose, whether a beginner or expert, Montrose Environmental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Montrose Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Montrose. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Montrose Environmental's price trends.

Montrose Environmental Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Montrose Environmental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Montrose Environmental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Montrose Environmental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Montrose Environmental Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Montrose Environmental's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Montrose Environmental's current price.

Montrose Environmental Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Montrose Environmental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Montrose Environmental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Montrose Environmental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Montrose Environmental Grp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Montrose Environmental Risk Indicators

The analysis of Montrose Environmental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Montrose Environmental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting montrose stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Montrose Environmental is a strong investment it is important to analyze Montrose Environmental's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Montrose Environmental's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Montrose Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Montrose Environmental to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Environmental & Facilities Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Montrose Environmental. If investors know Montrose will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Montrose Environmental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.48)
Revenue Per Share
21.013
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.064
Return On Assets
(0.01)
Return On Equity
(0.07)
The market value of Montrose Environmental is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Montrose that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Montrose Environmental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Montrose Environmental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Montrose Environmental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Montrose Environmental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Montrose Environmental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Montrose Environmental is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Montrose Environmental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.