MGP Ingredients Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MGPI Stock | USD 43.82 0.62 1.40% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MGP Ingredients on the next trading day is expected to be 42.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.43. MGP Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MGP Ingredients' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
MGP |
MGP Ingredients Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the MGP Ingredients' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1988-06-30 | Previous Quarter 21 M | Current Value 20.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 10.7 M |
MGP Ingredients Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MGP Ingredients on the next trading day is expected to be 42.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.47, mean absolute percentage error of 12.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MGP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MGP Ingredients' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MGP Ingredients Stock Forecast Pattern
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MGP Ingredients Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MGP Ingredients' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MGP Ingredients' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.34 and 46.47, respectively. We have considered MGP Ingredients' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MGP Ingredients stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MGP Ingredients stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.4647 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.4747 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0408 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 153.4325 |
Predictive Modules for MGP Ingredients
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MGP Ingredients. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for MGP Ingredients
For every potential investor in MGP, whether a beginner or expert, MGP Ingredients' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MGP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MGP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MGP Ingredients' price trends.MGP Ingredients Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MGP Ingredients stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MGP Ingredients could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MGP Ingredients by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MGP Ingredients Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MGP Ingredients' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MGP Ingredients' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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MGP Ingredients Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MGP Ingredients stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MGP Ingredients shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MGP Ingredients stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MGP Ingredients entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5832.36 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.60) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 44.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 43.98 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.54) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.62) |
MGP Ingredients Risk Indicators
The analysis of MGP Ingredients' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MGP Ingredients' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mgp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.98 | |||
| Variance | 15.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether MGP Ingredients offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of MGP Ingredients' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mgp Ingredients Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mgp Ingredients Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MGP Ingredients to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in MGP Stock please use our How to Invest in MGP Ingredients guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Distillers & Vintners space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MGP Ingredients. If investors know MGP will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MGP Ingredients listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.845 | Dividend Share 0.48 | Earnings Share 4.82 | Revenue Per Share 33.38 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.24) |
The market value of MGP Ingredients is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MGP that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MGP Ingredients' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MGP Ingredients' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MGP Ingredients' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MGP Ingredients' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MGP Ingredients' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MGP Ingredients is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MGP Ingredients' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.