Migros Ticaret Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MGROS Stock | TRY 497.25 9.25 1.83% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Migros Ticaret AS on the next trading day is expected to be 493.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 459.72. Migros Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Migros Ticaret's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Migros Ticaret Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Migros Ticaret AS on the next trading day is expected to be 493.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.79, mean absolute percentage error of 106.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 459.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Migros Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Migros Ticaret's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Migros Ticaret Stock Forecast Pattern
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Migros Ticaret Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Migros Ticaret's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Migros Ticaret's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 491.13 and 495.68, respectively. We have considered Migros Ticaret's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Migros Ticaret stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Migros Ticaret stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.9438 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.7919 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 459.7202 |
Predictive Modules for Migros Ticaret
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Migros Ticaret AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Migros Ticaret's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Migros Ticaret
For every potential investor in Migros, whether a beginner or expert, Migros Ticaret's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Migros Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Migros. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Migros Ticaret's price trends.Migros Ticaret Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Migros Ticaret stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Migros Ticaret could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Migros Ticaret by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Migros Ticaret AS Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Migros Ticaret's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Migros Ticaret's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Migros Ticaret Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Migros Ticaret stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Migros Ticaret shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Migros Ticaret stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Migros Ticaret AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0316 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.57) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 505.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 502.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 16.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (12.75) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (9.25) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.83 |
Migros Ticaret Risk Indicators
The analysis of Migros Ticaret's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Migros Ticaret's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting migros stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Variance | 5.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Migros Stock
Migros Ticaret financial ratios help investors to determine whether Migros Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Migros with respect to the benefits of owning Migros Ticaret security.