Molinos Agro Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MOLA Stock  ARS 22,550  275.00  1.20%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Molinos Agro SA on the next trading day is expected to be 22,926 with a mean absolute deviation of 379.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23,147. Molinos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Molinos Agro stock prices and determine the direction of Molinos Agro SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Molinos Agro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Molinos Agro is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Molinos Agro SA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Molinos Agro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Molinos Agro SA on the next trading day is expected to be 22,926 with a mean absolute deviation of 379.46, mean absolute percentage error of 222,532, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23,147.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Molinos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Molinos Agro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Molinos Agro Stock Forecast Pattern

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Molinos Agro Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Molinos Agro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Molinos Agro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22,924 and 22,929, respectively. We have considered Molinos Agro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22,550
22,924
Downside
22,926
Expected Value
22,929
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Molinos Agro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Molinos Agro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria130.4233
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation379.4556
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0202
SAESum of the absolute errors23146.7933
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Molinos Agro SA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Molinos Agro. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Molinos Agro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Molinos Agro SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
22,54822,55022,552
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17,65417,65624,805
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
20,33421,33322,332
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Molinos Agro

For every potential investor in Molinos, whether a beginner or expert, Molinos Agro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Molinos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Molinos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Molinos Agro's price trends.

Molinos Agro Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Molinos Agro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Molinos Agro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Molinos Agro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Molinos Agro SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Molinos Agro's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Molinos Agro's current price.

Molinos Agro Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Molinos Agro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Molinos Agro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Molinos Agro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Molinos Agro SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Molinos Agro Risk Indicators

The analysis of Molinos Agro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Molinos Agro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting molinos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Molinos Stock

Molinos Agro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Molinos Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Molinos with respect to the benefits of owning Molinos Agro security.