Motisons Jewellers Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

MOTISONS   28.20  0.21  0.74%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Motisons Jewellers on the next trading day is expected to be 28.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.92. Motisons Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Motisons Jewellers' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Motisons Jewellers' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Motisons Jewellers fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Motisons Jewellers' Cash is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 17th of December 2024, Non Current Assets Total is likely to grow to about 108.4 M, while Total Assets are likely to drop about 3.7 B.
A two period moving average forecast for Motisons Jewellers is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Motisons Jewellers Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Motisons Jewellers on the next trading day is expected to be 28.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 1.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Motisons Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Motisons Jewellers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Motisons Jewellers Stock Forecast Pattern

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Motisons Jewellers Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Motisons Jewellers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Motisons Jewellers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.23 and 31.17, respectively. We have considered Motisons Jewellers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.20
28.20
Expected Value
31.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Motisons Jewellers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Motisons Jewellers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2699
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0049
MADMean absolute deviation0.7319
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.025
SAESum of the absolute errors43.915
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Motisons Jewellers price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Motisons Jewellers. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Motisons Jewellers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Motisons Jewellers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Motisons Jewellers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.7127.8330.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.6628.7831.90
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Motisons Jewellers

For every potential investor in Motisons, whether a beginner or expert, Motisons Jewellers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Motisons Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Motisons. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Motisons Jewellers' price trends.

Motisons Jewellers Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Motisons Jewellers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Motisons Jewellers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Motisons Jewellers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Motisons Jewellers Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Motisons Jewellers' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Motisons Jewellers' current price.

Motisons Jewellers Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Motisons Jewellers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Motisons Jewellers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Motisons Jewellers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Motisons Jewellers entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Motisons Jewellers Risk Indicators

The analysis of Motisons Jewellers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Motisons Jewellers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting motisons stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Motisons Stock

Motisons Jewellers financial ratios help investors to determine whether Motisons Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Motisons with respect to the benefits of owning Motisons Jewellers security.