Marathon Petroleum Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MPN Stock | EUR 147.42 0.86 0.59% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Petroleum Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 137.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.41. Marathon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marathon Petroleum's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Marathon |
Marathon Petroleum Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Petroleum Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 137.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.51, mean absolute percentage error of 10.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marathon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marathon Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marathon Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern
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Marathon Petroleum Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marathon Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marathon Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 135.76 and 139.91, respectively. We have considered Marathon Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marathon Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marathon Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.4726 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.5149 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 153.4068 |
Predictive Modules for Marathon Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Petroleum Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Marathon Petroleum
For every potential investor in Marathon, whether a beginner or expert, Marathon Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marathon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marathon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marathon Petroleum's price trends.Marathon Petroleum Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marathon Petroleum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marathon Petroleum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marathon Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marathon Petroleum Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marathon Petroleum's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marathon Petroleum's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Marathon Petroleum Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marathon Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marathon Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marathon Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marathon Petroleum Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 147.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 147.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.43 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.86 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.57 |
Marathon Petroleum Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marathon Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marathon Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marathon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Marathon Stock
When determining whether Marathon Petroleum Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Marathon Petroleum's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Petroleum to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.