Mytilineos Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MYTIL Stock  EUR 31.10  0.44  1.40%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mytilineos SA on the next trading day is expected to be 31.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.74. Mytilineos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mytilineos stock prices and determine the direction of Mytilineos SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mytilineos' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Mytilineos is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mytilineos SA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Mytilineos Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mytilineos SA on the next trading day is expected to be 31.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.74.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mytilineos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mytilineos' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mytilineos Stock Forecast Pattern

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Mytilineos Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mytilineos' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mytilineos' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.77 and 32.70, respectively. We have considered Mytilineos' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
31.10
31.24
Expected Value
32.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mytilineos stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mytilineos stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.272
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5532
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0166
SAESum of the absolute errors33.7445
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Mytilineos SA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Mytilineos. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Mytilineos

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mytilineos SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.6431.1032.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.8332.2933.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.0631.6332.21
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Mytilineos

For every potential investor in Mytilineos, whether a beginner or expert, Mytilineos' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mytilineos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mytilineos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mytilineos' price trends.

Mytilineos Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mytilineos stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mytilineos could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mytilineos by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mytilineos SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mytilineos' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mytilineos' current price.

Mytilineos Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mytilineos stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mytilineos shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mytilineos stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mytilineos SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mytilineos Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mytilineos' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mytilineos' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mytilineos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in Mytilineos Stock

Mytilineos financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mytilineos Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mytilineos with respect to the benefits of owning Mytilineos security.