NewMarket Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

NEU Stock  USD 541.60  2.93  0.54%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NewMarket on the next trading day is expected to be 553.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 362.14. NewMarket Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, NewMarket's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 11.76 in 2024, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 3.33 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 14 M in 2024, whereas Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop slightly above 178.1 M in 2024.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the NewMarket's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1985-12-31
Previous Quarter
87.6 M
Current Value
80.3 M
Quarterly Volatility
65.8 M
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for NewMarket is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of NewMarket value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

NewMarket Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of NewMarket on the next trading day is expected to be 553.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.94, mean absolute percentage error of 55.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 362.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NewMarket Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NewMarket's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

NewMarket Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Sep 30Oct 8Oct 16Oct 24Nov 1Nov 11Nov 19Nov 27Dec 6Dec 15Next 6550600650
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15NewMarket NewMarket forecast
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NewMarket Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting NewMarket's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NewMarket's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 552.03 and 554.60, respectively. We have considered NewMarket's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
541.60
552.03
Downside
553.31
Expected Value
554.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NewMarket stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NewMarket stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.1216
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation5.9368
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.011
SAESum of the absolute errors362.1424
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of NewMarket. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict NewMarket. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for NewMarket

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NewMarket. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NewMarket's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
540.54541.82543.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
494.46495.74595.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
526.50543.17559.84
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
409.50450.00499.50
Details

Other Forecasting Options for NewMarket

For every potential investor in NewMarket, whether a beginner or expert, NewMarket's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NewMarket Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NewMarket. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NewMarket's price trends.

NewMarket Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NewMarket stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NewMarket could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NewMarket by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

NewMarket Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NewMarket's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NewMarket's current price.

NewMarket Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NewMarket stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NewMarket shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NewMarket stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NewMarket entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

NewMarket Risk Indicators

The analysis of NewMarket's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NewMarket's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting newmarket stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Investing Ideas  

Additional Tools for NewMarket Stock Analysis

When running NewMarket's price analysis, check to measure NewMarket's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NewMarket is operating at the current time. Most of NewMarket's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NewMarket's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NewMarket's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NewMarket to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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