National Fuel Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NFG Stock | USD 63.97 0.51 0.80% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Fuel Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 64.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.53. National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Fuel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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National Fuel Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Fuel Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 64.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Fuel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Fuel Stock Forecast Pattern
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National Fuel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Fuel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Fuel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 62.73 and 65.54, respectively. We have considered National Fuel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Fuel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Fuel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1168 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.687 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0113 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.531 |
Predictive Modules for National Fuel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Fuel Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for National Fuel
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Fuel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Fuel's price trends.National Fuel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Fuel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Fuel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Fuel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Fuel Gas Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Fuel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Fuel's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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National Fuel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Fuel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Fuel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Fuel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Fuel Gas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Fuel Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Fuel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Fuel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Variance | 1.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether National Fuel Gas is a strong investment it is important to analyze National Fuel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact National Fuel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding National Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Fuel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Gas Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Fuel. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Fuel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.176 | Dividend Share 2.02 | Earnings Share 0.84 | Revenue Per Share 21.187 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.008 |
The market value of National Fuel Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Fuel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Fuel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Fuel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Fuel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Fuel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Fuel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Fuel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.