Natura Co Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Natura Co - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Natura Co prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Natura Co price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Natura Co Holding.

Natura Co Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Natura Co Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 14.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.68.

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Natura Co stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Natura Co stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Natura Co observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Natura Co Holding observations.

Predictive Modules for Natura Co

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natura Co Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 12.00 14.34 16.68 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 9.78 12.12 14.46 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 13.66 14.21 14.77 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Natura Co. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Natura Co's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Natura Co's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Natura Co Holding.

Other Forecasting Options for Natura Co

For every potential investor in Natura, whether a beginner or expert, Natura Co's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Natura Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Natura. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Natura Co's price trends.

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Natura Co Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Natura Co's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Natura Co's current price.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

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