North West Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

NWC Stock  CAD 52.80  0.54  1.01%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of North West on the next trading day is expected to be 51.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.02. North Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although North West's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of North West's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of North West fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, North West's Payables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 4th of December 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 3.36, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 4.50. . As of the 4th of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 53 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop about 102 M.
North West polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for North West as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

North West Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of North West on the next trading day is expected to be 51.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 0.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict North Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that North West's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

North West Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest North WestNorth West Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

North West Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting North West's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. North West's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.18 and 52.66, respectively. We have considered North West's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
52.80
51.42
Expected Value
52.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of North West stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent North West stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7541
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.656
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0126
SAESum of the absolute errors40.0159
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the North West historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for North West

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as North West. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
52.0753.3054.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
51.7652.9954.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
51.7652.6153.45
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.770.850.86
Details

Other Forecasting Options for North West

For every potential investor in North, whether a beginner or expert, North West's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. North Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in North. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying North West's price trends.

North West Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with North West stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of North West could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing North West by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

North West Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of North West's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of North West's current price.

North West Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how North West stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading North West shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying North West stock market strength indicators, traders can identify North West entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

North West Risk Indicators

The analysis of North West's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in North West's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting north stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with North West

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if North West position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in North West will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to North West could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace North West when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back North West - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling North West to buy it.
The correlation of North West is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as North West moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if North West moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for North West can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in North Stock

North West financial ratios help investors to determine whether North Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in North with respect to the benefits of owning North West security.