Oracle Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

ORCL34 Stock  BRL 176.13  5.07  2.80%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Oracle on the next trading day is expected to be 175.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 250.41. Oracle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Oracle stock prices and determine the direction of Oracle's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Oracle's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Oracle is based on an artificially constructed time series of Oracle daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Oracle 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Oracle on the next trading day is expected to be 175.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.64, mean absolute percentage error of 36.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 250.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oracle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oracle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Oracle Stock Forecast Pattern

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Oracle Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Oracle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oracle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 172.91 and 177.72, respectively. We have considered Oracle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
176.13
172.91
Downside
175.31
Expected Value
177.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oracle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oracle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.8297
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.6892
MADMean absolute deviation4.6372
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0262
SAESum of the absolute errors250.4112
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Oracle 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Oracle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oracle. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
173.73176.13178.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
152.96155.36193.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Oracle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Oracle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Oracle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Oracle.

Other Forecasting Options for Oracle

For every potential investor in Oracle, whether a beginner or expert, Oracle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oracle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oracle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oracle's price trends.

Oracle Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oracle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oracle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oracle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Oracle Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Oracle's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Oracle's current price.

Oracle Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oracle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oracle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oracle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oracle entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Oracle Risk Indicators

The analysis of Oracle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oracle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oracle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Oracle Stock

When determining whether Oracle is a strong investment it is important to analyze Oracle's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Oracle's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Oracle Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oracle to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Oracle Stock refer to our How to Trade Oracle Stock guide.
You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oracle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oracle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oracle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.