Osterweis Strategic Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

OSTIX Fund  USD 11.23  0.01  0.09%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Osterweis Strategic Income on the next trading day is expected to be 11.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.44. Osterweis Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Osterweis Strategic simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Osterweis Strategic Income are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Osterweis Strategic prices get older.

Osterweis Strategic Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Osterweis Strategic Income on the next trading day is expected to be 11.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Osterweis Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Osterweis Strategic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Osterweis Strategic Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Osterweis StrategicOsterweis Strategic Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Osterweis Strategic Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Osterweis Strategic's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Osterweis Strategic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.14 and 11.32, respectively. We have considered Osterweis Strategic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.23
11.23
Expected Value
11.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Osterweis Strategic mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Osterweis Strategic mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.1576
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0017
MADMean absolute deviation0.0073
MAPEMean absolute percentage error7.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors0.44
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Osterweis Strategic Income forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Osterweis Strategic observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Osterweis Strategic

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Osterweis Strategic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.1411.2311.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.2310.3212.35
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Osterweis Strategic

For every potential investor in Osterweis, whether a beginner or expert, Osterweis Strategic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Osterweis Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Osterweis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Osterweis Strategic's price trends.

Osterweis Strategic Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Osterweis Strategic mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Osterweis Strategic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Osterweis Strategic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Osterweis Strategic Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Osterweis Strategic's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Osterweis Strategic's current price.

Osterweis Strategic Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Osterweis Strategic mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Osterweis Strategic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Osterweis Strategic mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Osterweis Strategic Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Osterweis Strategic Risk Indicators

The analysis of Osterweis Strategic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Osterweis Strategic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting osterweis mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Osterweis Mutual Fund

Osterweis Strategic financial ratios help investors to determine whether Osterweis Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Osterweis with respect to the benefits of owning Osterweis Strategic security.
Odds Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Latest Portfolios
Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios