Pampa Energia Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PAM Stock | USD 85.59 1.39 1.65% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pampa Energia SA on the next trading day is expected to be 88.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.25. Pampa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Pampa Energia's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Pampa Energia's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Pampa Energia fundamentals over time.
Pampa |
Pampa Energia Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Pampa Energia's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2006-09-30 | Previous Quarter 152.1 M | Current Value 332 M | Quarterly Volatility 16.1 B |
Pampa Energia Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pampa Energia SA on the next trading day is expected to be 88.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33, mean absolute percentage error of 2.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pampa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pampa Energia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pampa Energia Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pampa Energia | Pampa Energia Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Pampa Energia Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pampa Energia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pampa Energia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.12 and 89.99, respectively. We have considered Pampa Energia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pampa Energia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pampa Energia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0853 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.332 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.02 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 81.2497 |
Predictive Modules for Pampa Energia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pampa Energia SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Pampa Energia
For every potential investor in Pampa, whether a beginner or expert, Pampa Energia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pampa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pampa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pampa Energia's price trends.Pampa Energia Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pampa Energia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pampa Energia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pampa Energia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pampa Energia SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pampa Energia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pampa Energia's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Pampa Energia Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pampa Energia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pampa Energia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pampa Energia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pampa Energia SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pampa Energia Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pampa Energia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pampa Energia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pampa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8984 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8071 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Electric Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pampa Energia. If investors know Pampa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pampa Energia listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.814 | Earnings Share 8 | Revenue Per Share 33.15 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 2.43 | Return On Assets 0.052 |
The market value of Pampa Energia SA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pampa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pampa Energia's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pampa Energia's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pampa Energia's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pampa Energia's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pampa Energia's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pampa Energia is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pampa Energia's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.