Peoples Bancorp Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PEBK Stock  USD 31.17  0.56  1.76%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Peoples Bancorp of on the next trading day is expected to be 31.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.64. Peoples Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Peoples Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Peoples Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Peoples Bancorp fundamentals over time.
  
Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 0.05 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to (0.03). . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 6.6 M this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 19.5 M this year.
Triple exponential smoothing for Peoples Bancorp - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Peoples Bancorp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Peoples Bancorp price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Peoples Bancorp.

Peoples Bancorp Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Peoples Bancorp of on the next trading day is expected to be 31.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.64.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Peoples Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Peoples Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Peoples Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Peoples Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Peoples Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Peoples Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.70 and 33.65, respectively. We have considered Peoples Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
31.17
31.18
Expected Value
33.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Peoples Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Peoples Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0518
MADMean absolute deviation0.4515
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0164
SAESum of the absolute errors26.6394
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Peoples Bancorp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Peoples Bancorp of observations.

Predictive Modules for Peoples Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Peoples Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.7131.1733.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22.3024.7634.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
27.0730.0833.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Peoples Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Peoples Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Peoples Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Peoples Bancorp.

Other Forecasting Options for Peoples Bancorp

For every potential investor in Peoples, whether a beginner or expert, Peoples Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Peoples Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Peoples. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Peoples Bancorp's price trends.

Peoples Bancorp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Peoples Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Peoples Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Peoples Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Peoples Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Peoples Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Peoples Bancorp's current price.

Peoples Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Peoples Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Peoples Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Peoples Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Peoples Bancorp of entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Peoples Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Peoples Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Peoples Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting peoples stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Peoples Bancorp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Peoples Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Peoples Bancorp Of Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Peoples Bancorp Of Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Peoples Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Peoples Stock please use our How to buy in Peoples Stock guide.
You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Peoples Bancorp. If investors know Peoples will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Peoples Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.03)
Dividend Share
0.76
Earnings Share
2.95
Revenue Per Share
15.039
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.041
The market value of Peoples Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Peoples that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Peoples Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Peoples Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Peoples Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Peoples Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Peoples Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Peoples Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Peoples Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.