Penta Teknoloji Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PENTA Stock   15.45  0.05  0.32%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Penta Teknoloji Urunleri on the next trading day is expected to be 15.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.14. Penta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Penta Teknoloji's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Penta Teknoloji - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Penta Teknoloji prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Penta Teknoloji price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Penta Teknoloji Urunleri.

Penta Teknoloji Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Penta Teknoloji Urunleri on the next trading day is expected to be 15.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Penta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Penta Teknoloji's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Penta Teknoloji Stock Forecast Pattern

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Penta Teknoloji Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Penta Teknoloji's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Penta Teknoloji's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.62 and 17.34, respectively. We have considered Penta Teknoloji's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.45
15.48
Expected Value
17.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Penta Teknoloji stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Penta Teknoloji stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0177
MADMean absolute deviation0.219
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors13.14
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Penta Teknoloji observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Penta Teknoloji Urunleri observations.

Predictive Modules for Penta Teknoloji

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Penta Teknoloji Urunleri. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.5915.4517.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.1214.9816.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.5115.5116.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Penta Teknoloji. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Penta Teknoloji's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Penta Teknoloji's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Penta Teknoloji Urunleri.

Other Forecasting Options for Penta Teknoloji

For every potential investor in Penta, whether a beginner or expert, Penta Teknoloji's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Penta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Penta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Penta Teknoloji's price trends.

Penta Teknoloji Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Penta Teknoloji stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Penta Teknoloji could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Penta Teknoloji by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Penta Teknoloji Urunleri Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Penta Teknoloji's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Penta Teknoloji's current price.

Penta Teknoloji Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Penta Teknoloji stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Penta Teknoloji shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Penta Teknoloji stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Penta Teknoloji Urunleri entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Penta Teknoloji Risk Indicators

The analysis of Penta Teknoloji's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Penta Teknoloji's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting penta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in Penta Stock

Penta Teknoloji financial ratios help investors to determine whether Penta Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Penta with respect to the benefits of owning Penta Teknoloji security.