Provident Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

PFS Stock  USD 20.96  0.30  1.45%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Provident Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 21.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.96. Provident Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 6.68 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop (0.20) in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 212.1 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 69.3 M in 2024.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Provident Financial price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Provident Financial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Provident Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 21.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Provident Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Provident Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Provident Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

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Provident Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Provident Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Provident Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.81 and 23.88, respectively. We have considered Provident Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.96
21.34
Expected Value
23.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Provident Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Provident Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5422
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6386
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0333
SAESum of the absolute errors38.9571
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Provident Financial Services historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Provident Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Provident Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.4220.9523.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.7020.2322.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
20.6720.9521.22
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.3820.2022.42
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Provident Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Provident Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Provident Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Provident Financial.

Other Forecasting Options for Provident Financial

For every potential investor in Provident, whether a beginner or expert, Provident Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Provident Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Provident. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Provident Financial's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Provident Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Provident Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Provident Financial's current price.

Provident Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Provident Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Provident Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Provident Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Provident Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Provident Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Provident Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Provident Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting provident stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Provident Stock Analysis

When running Provident Financial's price analysis, check to measure Provident Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Provident Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Provident Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Provident Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Provident Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Provident Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.